As another harvest draws to a close it’s not only worth looking back at the past year, but also casting forward to what’s ahead. CPM assesses the results while considering the potential for 2024/25.
“There have been good crops, bad crops and indifferent ones.”
By Melanie Jenkins
This season has presented challenging conditions for growers with talk circulating about whether the wet autumns and dry springs will become the norm, but there are still positives and key lessons to take away, say experts.
Although irregular establishment may explain the variability in wheat yields seen this harvest, Hutchinsons’ Neil Watson observes that there are a number of other lessons emerging which could help to clarify.
“What’s most evident so far this harvest is the significant variability in yield with some crops performing well considering the circumstances, while others have barely reached half their potential – and occasionally within the same field,” he says.
“The trend seems to be better on freer draining soils which have maintained their yield capabilities, albeit with no record yields. Conversely, the heavier and poorer structured soils have seen their potential plummet.”
So much so, Neil believes soil drainage and root development to be the more significant issues. “The ratio of 20:1, the final above ground biomass production to below ground root production tells you everything. If you hinder root development, the knock-on effect on biomass will be all too evident. The effects of temporary root drowning were not only limited to the winter – in some parts of the country heavy rain late on in the season, just as the crop approached ripening, caused premature senescence.”
This lack of biomass was all too apparent from early spring onwards, where wet soils impeded uptake of nitrogen at a vital stage, while the lack of sunshine has significantly limited biomass production, particularly early in the season at the construction phase, he says. “The latter stages of the season didn’t help with grain fill either, subsequently bushel weights have suffered. Elevated temperatures towards the end of the growing season also meant accelerated leaf aging leading to negative effects in the grain filling phase.”
However, he feels that in general, the lower temperatures through most of the critical spring/summer growth period helped reduce stress on crops.
Neil also believes that blackgrass control, or lack of it, will have impacted yield. “Not because of poor residual control in the autumn, quite the contrary, but because the wet spring surviving plants were able to negate the effects of the autumn residuals.”
Disease played a key part in most areas as well, he notes. “Septoria pressure was high in the early part of the season, continuing through the critical months of April and May. The early drilled crops were at the greatest risk with many growers struggling to keep leaf two clean.
“Both yellow and brown rusts were a major risk in susceptible varieties this season – once in the base of the crop, fungicide programmes struggled to hold the disease at bay beyond three weeks,” says Neil. “And fusarium and ergot were more prevalent this year than most, primarily because of a wet flowering period.”
He also believes that partly because the wet soils delayed applications, BYDV was more common among winter than spring crops this season. “The wet winter didn’t help with take-all in cereals this year either, it’s even shown through in first cereals.”
“When you consider all of the issues that the season has thrown at crops, it’s no wonder we’re seeing a range of yields across farms and even fields,” he adds.
But while variability appears to be the theme of this harvest, ProCam’s Lee Harker has observed a number of standout varieties this season. “LG Beowulf has performed very well in its first season, while Champion has also stone out with some excellent yields and KWS Dawsum doesn’t appear to be letting anyone down.
“Bamford is another really good variety and there’s still plenty of seed around. I think a number of growers may have passed it up because it’s a Group 3, but it’s almost worth forgetting this. Bamford is simply a very high yielding, good wheat that’s suitable for most growers and if they can get a premium on it, that’s just a bonus.”
It’s not a dissimilar picture when it comes to barley, with Lee noting that variability is again the key take-home from this year’s harvest. “There have been good crops, bad crops and indifferent ones,” he says. “Variability has been evident in the yields, quality and specific weights we’ve seen.”
A lot of crops have produced below par yields, with reports coming in that some conventional varieties have delivered noticeably thin grains. “Although there are a few conventional varieties which have caught up with hybrids in terms of yield, the hybrids have definitely performed more consistently over the past few years.
Hybrids have also improved in terms of grain quality. “For example, LG Canyon has a very strong specific weight – only second to LG Caravelle on the current AHDB Recommended List – which is a really good selling point.”
Caravelle, LG Capitol and KWS Tardis have been the best performing conventional varieties, according to Lee. “Caravelle has looked very good and consistent, so I think that’ll be very popular this year, plus there’s plenty of seed available. Capitol has almost gone under the radar a little but it’s on a footing with Caravelle and Tardis is selling well again.”
After last year’s disastrous drilling conditions, the assumption is a lot of growers will have elected to drill early this time round, says Lee.
Despite this, he highlights that the barley area is predicted to fall this coming season. “The end prices aren’t great – we’re seeing wheat at about £180/t and barley usually trades around £20/t below this. Barley plantings are also linked to the oilseed rape area due to it being such a good entry for it, and with growers turning away from this break crop the fall in barley goes hand-in-hand.
“But should we see a strong OSR crop this autumn, it’s good to remember that barley will open the door to planting it next year. We tend to farm based on the year we’ve just had, but really we should be farming for the year or more ahead.”
Lee also points out that hybrid barley is a suitable option for those looking at whole cropping. “There are issues with the lack of available forage and we’re seeing maize crops that haven’t had enough sun just not delivering. But if you plant hybrid barley, you have the flexibility of deciding what to do with it later down the line, whether that’s taking it through to harvest or whole cropping it earlier in the year.”
Looking at it from a different angle, hybrid barley is also the best option for grassweed competition, he adds. “It’s the most competitive cereal crop for smothering weeds and this is of paramount importance if you’re drilling really early, plus it could be a better option than a second wheat in this timeslot. Not all wheat varieties will be available on time for early drilling either, whereas hybrid barley is packed and ready to go.”
“Then there’s the straw to consider, with hybrids tending to produce more straw than conventionals. If you’re yielding 4-5t/ha of barley straw, at the current value of around £80/t, that’s extra to add to the gross margin.”
Lee feels that OSR is full of ups and downs and the challenge now is to persuade growers that it’s still a good option. “We’ve only sold around half the seed that we had this time last year and ironically there’s few reports of active cabbage stem flea beetle currently. I think we could only have around 230,000ha planted this year.
“What we saw at harvest was that even those crops which looked good and had apparently grown well through the season, still only achieved passable yields. Because of this some growers are taking a minimalist approach to the crop in case it suffers from CSFB and this almost sets it up to underperform. However, this is where the benefits of the breeder establishment schemes can come in handy.”
NPZ UK’s Chris Guest has been pleased with the results he’s seen this harvest though. “Maverick has done very well – we’ve seen good results from Agrii’s trials and one of our growers, Ben Cannon, based in Louth, has reported that it was the highest yielding variety on his strip trial.”
But Chris admits that where CSFB, drought or waterlogging have impacted crops, this has pulled farm averages down. “Looking forward we have to move away from a ‘drill by’ date and instead target optimal conditions. I’m not suggesting that growers drill everything late, but to instead avoid bone dry conditions when there’s been no rain for several weeks.
“In difficult years we’re always more likely to hear about the bad than the good, but we’re still seeing people average more than 4t/ha across decent areas, so there’s very much still potential with this crop,” he adds.
And there’s also the inherent market opportunities presented by any commodity crop to take advantage of, says Chris. “For example, you could drill OSR now and still be marketing it in June 2026. And yes, you might have to deal with pests such as pigeons but being in the right place at the right time can yield a reward.”
Lee agrees: “We consume about 2M tonnes of rapeseed oil in this country each year yet we’re only producing about 1M tonnes of that requirement, plus the oil is used in all sorts of processed foods. And with the government focusing more on domestic food security, OSR still has a valuable position.”
This article was taken from the latest issue of CPM. Read the article in full here.
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