AHDB has published the first official 2022/23 UK supply and demand estimates for wheat, barley, oats and maize, with wheat supplies set to increase significantly.
According to the levy board, total availability of wheat is predicted to increase by 8% compared with last season to a total of 18.7M tonnes, on the back of an increase in production and carry-in stocks, outweighing a drop in imports, says senior market analyst Millie Askew. “On the back of higher than average yields, UK wheat production for 2022 is provisionally forecast at 15.664M tonnes, 12% higher than 2021 levels. With a larger domestic crop this season full season imports are expected to be 39% lower on the year at 1.225M tonnes as they are not pricing competitively.”
With supply expected to outweigh demand this season for wheat, the balance has increased by 40% on the year to 3.752M tonnes, adds Millie. “Taking into account an operating stock requirement of 1.5M tonnes, this leaves a surplus available for export or free stock of 2.252M tonnes, over 1.5 times the volume in 2021/22.”
November 2022 forecast – key points:
- Larger wheat carry-in stocks, combined with a rise in production, outweighs the increase in usage, leading to a substantial exportable surplus for 2022/23.
- While a rise in barley production and a fall in animal feed demand has led to a heavier balance sheet in 2022/23, the barley balance remains tight in a historical context and is the third tightest in 10 years.
- Maize usage is expected to be capped by higher domestic availability of grain.
- Another bumper oat crop has led to another year of high exports forecast.
[Source: AHDB]
More information on the latest forecast can be found on AHDB’s website.
